Outputs

- A baseline survey (for the year 2000) of agricultural water use covering all aspects of agriculture in each country of the Nile basin, including estimates of water productivity by category of use. The survey includes a detailed review and maps of population, land use, cropping patterns in irrigation, estimate of water use in rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and an assessment of current water development facilities, together with estimates of water use in other sectors.

- A review of available information on the potential impact of irrigation on crop production, by country and by farming system, and assessment of irrigation and rainfed water productivity for the year 2000.

- Projections for 2030 of demand for food and other produce in the countries of the basin, with estimates of arable land expansion in irrigated and rainfed agriculture, yields of major crops, cropping patterns, and cropping intensities.

- Results of a set of scenarios on water development for agriculture, with estimates of water productivity in each region, and implications for the basin’s water balance.

Background

Agriculture is by far the main user of water in the Nile basin and therefore requires careful attention. Taken in its wider context including fisheries, forestry and livestock, the agricultural sector, with its influential water use, is linked to a range of social and environmental factors such as food security, poverty alleviation, conservation of the natural environment and biodiversity, all of prime importance for national and basin-wide development policies.

Issues of economic development in the Nile basin have often narrowly focused on the need to develop a physical potential, with little or no reference to the demand for agricultural products or the added value of irrigated agriculture in agricultural production.

The countries of the region have a high demographic growth rate. It is expected that the population of the basin, which was about 160 million in 1990, will grow to 300 million by 2010 and 550 million in 2030. With some of the countries being among the poorest in the world, the economies of the region are expected to continue to depend heavily on subsistence agriculture for the largest share of their GDP.

Clearly, agricultural development, in all countries of the basin, will play an important role and have a substantial impact on the basin’s water balance. Inversely, water management policies will impact agriculture substantially and their implications at national or basin levels need to be well understood. In a context of increasing water scarcity, options for water productivity increase need to be well understood by all stakeholders so that water can be allocated to the uses that would be of highest value for the whole basin community while guaranteeing equity in access to and sustainable management of the resources.

Scope and Objectives

The survey is intended to provide stakeholders and decision makers in the Nile Basin with a thorough assessment of the linkage between agriculture and water in the basin. In particular, the project is collecting and analyzing information on the current situation of agriculture - including rainfed and irrigated agriculture, forests, aquaculture and fisheries, rangeland management and livestock development. It will place this information within the overall socio-economic and demographic context of the region, and will develop projections of demand for agricultural produce and subsequent agricultural development between 2000 and 2030. These projections will be used to assess the impact of agricultural development on the water balance of the Nile basin.

In particular, the survey is expected to answer the following questions:

- What is, in each country, the current status of agricultural water use, the importance of water in agriculture and the impact of agriculture on the water balance?

- What are the trends in agricultural water demand, main drivers and projections for 2030 and implications for water management in the Nile basin?

It will also contribute to answer the following questions:

- What are the social and institutional factors affecting access to water and reliability of water supply for agriculture and domestic needs in rural areas?

- What are the opportunities for enhancing water productivity in agriculture?

- To what extent improved water management in agriculture can help alleviating rural poverty?